導讀: 路徑依賴

(路徑依賴)PATH DEPENDENCE – A FOUNDATIONAL CONCEPT FOR HISTORICAL SOCIAL SCIENCE ---導讀

Paul A. David Stanford University .

路徑依賴理論在1990年代開始盛行，與傳統之新古典理論架構完全背道而馳；相當程度顛覆了既有之思路。也成為當代新制度經濟學的重要分支。此理論源於十九世紀末的社會達爾文主義……。

• (切適性)This introduction to the concept of path dependence, its pertinence for the development of historical social science, and its application in economic analysis and economic history proceeds from intuitive general ideas about history and historicity in narratives.

• (動態過程)It provides precise definitions of what is meant by describing a dynamical process as being “historical.” Deterministic and stochastic formalizations of such dynamical systems are distinguished.

• (非遍歷性與差異性)The characterization of stochastic path-dependent processes as “nonergodic” is explained in non-mathematical language by reference to concepts in probability theory, and a variety of representations of such processes in formal models is surveyed (including the Polya urn-process, certain kinds of Markov chain models, branching processes, and reversible spin systems) to show that while all display path dependence in other respects their properties are quite different.

• (產生條件)The diverse set of structural, micro-level conditions that can give rise to path-dependence is examined, and a further distinction is drawn between the property of path dependence and the existence of so-called ‘QWERTY-effects’ -- characterized by decentralized competitive market failures and consequent “lock-in” to Pareto-inefficient equilibria.

• (引導政策/制度分析)Concluding sections consider the implications of the existence of non-ergodic dynamics for the methods of economic policy analysis, and the nature of the guidance that can be obtained in regard to public policy affecting endogenous technological change and institutional evolution.

• Ref: Paul David (2007)”Path Dependence – A Foundational Concept for Historical Social Science”, Cliometrica, v.1, no.2, pp 91-114.

• 應用範例:

台灣茶葉產業的演進過程與發展困境/

邱念渠 清華工管系碩士論文
http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/6098

• 台灣開始產製茶葉以來至今已有百餘年的歷史，並歷經了多次的時代變遷，一直不變的是茶葉為台灣重要的經濟資源的角色定位。台灣茶業自開始發展以來即以外銷為主要市場，受到國際茶葉市場的變化等因素的影響，台灣茶開始轉為以內銷為主的形態，產業結構產生鉅變，使得個體戶躍為國內茶葉生產主流。

• 政府茶業政策的目標是在改善農民經濟收益以及提高茶葉內銷的附加價值，因此捨棄了工業化的茶業發展方向，在產業分工體系解構的同時，也失去了出口導向的產業形態。富裕的台灣社會相當程度的支撐了茶葉的國內銷售，然而，大量的廉價茶進口重重地打擊國內低價茶的生產。

• 在研究台茶產業之初，發現其關鍵因素是既存的產業制度，也可以說是現有制度使茶業不得不遭遇某些問題，進一步深究發現既存的產業體制的形成又與產業制度的沿革有關，許多問題的解答都深藏在歷史事件之中，茶業發展的歷程明顯的露出「路逕依賴」（path dependence）的刻痕，因此欲解釋台茶面臨的問題的最好是從歷史中探尋根源。

• 台灣的茶業生態是如此的複雜而微妙，故本研究嘗試以「歷史制度論」的方式探索台灣茶業，希望從產業制度變遷的歷史軌跡與國際經貿環境的變化的脈絡中探尋答案，旨在推論出目前茶業體制的成因，並進一步的探討國內茶業目前所處的環境，市場條件變化對茶葉產業所可能造成的衝擊，以及影響茶業發展的關鍵因素。